FROM PEARL HARBOUR RIGHT THROUGH TO 9/11: USA DOES NOT EASILY FORGIVE AND NEITHER DOES IT FORGET

The humiliating 1979 Iranian revolution that toppled American ally, Shah Reza Pahlavi and ushered in the Islamic theocracy under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruholah Khomenei, in the process signalling a death knell to the Jimmy Carter presidency was always bound to be compensated, one way or the other.

The Japanese paid with the nuclear bombs; Osama Bin Laden compensated for 9/11 with the Bush Doctrine, better known as the Global War on Terror (GWOT), itself a policy thrust that incinerated the Middle East like never before seen.

As for the Iranian theocracy, from what we now know, have compensated with the death of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, together with his most trusted lieutenants.

The developments in Iran, which I had predicted long back and as can be augmented by my previous submission, signals the end of an era and definitely, migration into unchartered territory. Khamenei was tracked, reportedly by a repertoire of tools, specifically, AI tools, itself a frightening reality of the weaponization of such technology in contemporary warfare.

HOW DID WE GET HERE? – Yahya Sinwar, the maverick former Hamas leader, engineered the ‘cul-de-suc’ of his benefactors when he engineered that and the October 2023 attack on Israel that resulted in the deaths of a reported 1200 Israeli’s and capture of a further 251 civilians, including, reportedly, around 41 American citizens.

The logic behind this move, which informs my current thesis on the efficacy of terrorism as a tactic, was indeed tactically successful but strategically moribund for the consequences of the deeds are now all visible for all and sundry to contextualize.

Iran’s Islamic theocracy sought to pursue a nuclear thrust they felt was their bona fide right and which they reported to be for civilian purposes, and this integrated nuclear program was shrouded in secrecy and had one US president after the other making dedicated attempts to stop it.

The most visible attempt was made by Obama in 2016 when he oversaw the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) that allowed Iran to enrich uranium in return for some concessions.

Amidst all this, the Ayatollah’s had pivoted their deterrence posture along the realms of asymmetric warfare, hedged by a network of proxies referred to as the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and punctuated by promised disruption of shipping within the Strait of Hormuz in the event of hostilities.

The poster boy of this axis was none other than the charismatic and mercurial Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah who, himself, was obliterated by bunker buster missiles on the 27th of September 2024 in Lebanon.

The first thing Trump did when he was elected President of the USA was to rescind the Obama-era JCPA and intensify HYBRID WARFARE on Iran.

A slew of simultaneous attacks across all domains emerged and was punctuated by the 3rd of January 2020 evisceration of the brains behind the ‘Axis of Resistance’, General Quassem Suleiman.

The die had been cast. The elimination of Suleimani, deemed by subsequent generations of US presidents to have been laden with numerous political risks opened had a domino effect as another crucial player within the ‘crucible’ of Iran nuclear thrust, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was himself liquidated in spectacular fashion by a remote-controlled satellite machine gun that utilized AI functionalities.

Competent analysts knew, immediately, that something was now brewing but then Trump lost the elections to be replaced by Joe Biden who was more fixated on Russia in its SMO on Ukraine. Trump 2.0 happened, and this is where we are.

ESCALATION OF HYBRID WARFARE ON IRAN UNDER TRUMP 2.0 – Donald Trump wasted no time and immediately put the Ayatollah’s on notice. The amplification and escalation of tools of hybrid warfare, MPECI, was deliberate and consistent.

The decimation of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ allowed Israel and the US to face Iran directly without the risks of facing Hezbollah, Houthi’s, Hamas etc. simultaneously. The June 2025 12-Day War was aimed at slowing down the enrichment process and targeted nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, Bushehr and Natanz.

Natanz is notorious for the Stuxnet Virus Attack that occurred in 2010. Amidst all this tapestry of spectacular interwoven realities, the Americans surreptitiously sought to achieve regime change through different methodologies, chief amongst them being the capitulation of the state from within.

Attempts at regime change by way of colour revolution were met with brutality by the Ayatollah’s, itself, a pivotal moment that availed opportunities for outside forces to invoke R2P.

The current decapitation attacks on the leadership of the theocracy can be contextualized as a form of R2P evolving into a regime change scheme.

WILL REGIME CHANGE SUCCEED? – One reality is now ominously overt; regime decapitation seems to have succeeded. The death of the Supreme Leader alongside his top security honchos signals the end of an era and beginning of a new one.

For regime change to be successful, a lot of variables must align, sequentially so as to overcome resistance. Anything along the realms of the Schlieffen Plan bound to collapse just the way the famed WWI plan did.

In terms of DIME, the remnants of the Ayatollah regime no longer have any leverage. The fiery rhetoric they used to give from their underground bunkers no longer pose an existential threat within the broader scheme of things.

However, the IRGC still remains intact. It is the IRGC that will prove pivotal in what is going to happen going forward.

Strategically fatal attempts to lure regional allies of the US into the conflict by lobbying missiles show how desperate those pulling the trigger are. Signs are that they might attempt to continue engaging in the terror but the strategic logic behind this move is diminished. I foresee a scenario where, in the event regime change succeeds, elements of the IRGC will mutate into what they know best in Iran-asymmetric warfare.

By way of summary, Trump has indeed achieved his immediate OBJECTIVE; the elimination of Ali Khamenei. In January he snatched Maduro under the nose of Chinese and Russian air defense systems.

American intelligence was used to nab arguably the most wanted narco terrorist in the world in Mexico, El-Mencho. End of February and beginning of March he has accounted for the Supreme Leader of Iran.

All this is happening amidst the realignment of the MAGA agenda that has seen the US withdraw from 66 UN-led agencies, threats to annex Greenland along the realms of the Monroe Doctrine and the contentious US-Africa bilateral medical deals that are generating heat by the day.

 Whilst we wait to evaluate whether or not regime change will succeed, one thing is now clear: REGIME DECAPITATION HAS, INDEED, SUCCEEDED!