US-Israel vs Iran: Two Intersecting Wars That Tehran May Fail To Handle

The CONFLICT between the US/Israel v Iran, that now is being characterized by conventional, state-on-state hostilities which Iran DOES NOT STAND A CHANCE is characterized by TWO WARS WITH MARGINALLY DIFFERENT YET INTERSECTING OBJECTIVES.

These two wars can be identified as;

1. The US v Iran War

2. Israel v Iran War

An analysis of THESE WARS is going to be made below so as to ensure the levels of discombobulation out there that has flummoxed many people is addressed with aplomb and finesse.

THE US v IRAN WAR (Operation Epic Fury)

This war is being waged along the following objectives, which have been narrowed down from the braggadocio characterization by US President DJ Trump he made when announcing the onset of hostilities that “regime change” was the ultimate objective, even though, with the decapitation of the leadership of the theocracy, this is increasingly becoming plausible;

1. Destroy Iran’s ballistics threat

2. Neutralize its naval capabilities

3. Destroy nuclear infrastructure

The history of this CONFLICT has been explained many a number of times. As a consequence of this, I will avoid centralizing the submission on that history, which can be traced back to the coup that removed Mossadeg in 1953, Iranian Revolution of 1979-1980, Beirut Bombings and crucially, the Iran nuclear thrust centered around asymmetric warfare as deterrence, driven by a network of proxies whose poster boy was Hassan Nasrallah,  Secretary General of Hezbollah,  The Party of God.

At present, despite the “cacophony” of noises amplifying INFORMATION DISORDER regarding the conflict, the following facts must be noted;

1. Iran is fighting conventionally through the use of non-contact warfare (tossing ballistic missiles)

2. The Islamic Theocracy has opted to go atop the escalation ladder from the onset, attacking regional Sunni-majority neighbors. This suicidal operational is probably driven by the strategic calculus that these regional neighbors will force the US to reconsider

3. The attacks on neighbors are part of an attempt to reestablish deterrence that was decimated with the evisceration of the network of proxies post 7 October 2023 Yayha Sinwar inspired attacks on Israel.

At present, the devastation being wrought on critical infrastructure in Iran in unbelievable.  Simultaneously,  the terror being induced by the Iranian bombs on her Arab neighbors is indeed scary. Some regional neighbors, specifically UAE, are not accustomed to this level of violence. However, the move to go after these neighbors has actually galavanized the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to come together, affirm aspirations of Article 2 Paragraph 4 and Article 51 of the UN Charter and threaten to retaliate in self defense.

From an analytical perspective,  the fact that the US is now deploying B-52 bombers is telling. The progression was that;

1. Initial attacks were made by B-2 stealth bombers. These are used in instances where enemy defences are solid and lethal. These were utilized in the early hours of hostilities,  so it is reported.

2. B-1; these one’s are reported to have joined the hostilities 48 hours after the pounding of Iran had commenced. These one’s are not stealth but faster than B-2s and generally deployed when air defences of the defending protagonist are depleted so as to minimize risk

3. B-52; massive ordnance carriers, slow and not stealth.  They fly at high altitude and are deployed when air defences are crippled.

The key takeaway from the usage of these bombers is that within a space of about 100 hours, Iranian air defense capabilities have been degraded allowing adversaries unlimited control of airspace over their skies. With non-contact warfare that is relying on the utilization of air superiority,  this can have cataclysmic consequences.

Related to the above, reports that the Iranian navy has been reduced to a shell then raises the spectre that the hugely touted ‘swarmcast technique’ within the Strait of Hormutz might not live to see the light of the day as hoped. I read somewhere where it was said that the US Navy might escort maritime and naval assets across the straight, itself a sign of increasing confidence.

Amidst all this, boots-on-the ground is not a feasible alternative but will be substituted, as is becoming increasingly likely, by the Kurds. The Kurds, stateless, constitute around 10% of the population of Iran and are known to be opposed to the theocracy.  They were allies of the US during the war against ISIS. Remember the Pershmerga.

By way of summary, it is important to highlight that celebrating penetration of Iranian ballistic missiles is premature due to the fact that:

1. Interceptors are expensive, going at an estimated US$4 million per missile.

2. The cost implication mean Cost-Benefit-Analysis is conducted to ascertain potential damage to be caused by a missile before it is neutralized

3. If the missile is hitting “unessential targets” or vacated infrastructure whose military significance is limited within the current context, they are allowed to pass through

Make no mistake, Iran is fighting a struggle for survival; the existential threats are real. The tossing of missiles to neighbors is aimed at forcing audiences in the US to have Trump reconsider-this is a political objective and not a sign of battlefield victory.

ISRAEL-IRAN WAR (OPERATION ROARING LION)

The Israelis are clearly guided, in objectives,  by the BEGIN DOCTRINE of 1981 which says Israeli will not allow a hostile adversary to have access to nuclear weapons. The objectives of this war are;

1. Decapitation of the Iranian Theocracy

2. Regime Change in Iran

Israel has been the key target of Iran. The country was benefiting from the Abraham Accords signed in 2020 between Israel and some GCC countries whose objectives were aimed at thawing relations with the Jewish State. This, definitely,  did not resonate well with Shiite Iran and the Ayatollahs.  The devastating retribution by Israel post 7 October 2023 sought to downgrade and then destroy the asymmetric warfare strategy of Iran which was pivoted around its network of proxies. The M/O was clear and consistent;

1. Decapitation of leadership of Hamas (Haniyeh, Sinwar, Deif etc)

2. Decapitation of leadership of Hezbollah (assassination of Nasrallah et al)

Post this and through the implementation of the DAHIYEH DOCTRINE, the Israelis launched unprecedented violence on Gaza never before seen. Gaza was literally obliterated in what was categorized by South Africa to be a genocide. Having dealt, decisively with the mask that covered the Iranian face, Israel went after Iran itself in the June 2026 12-Day War. The war itself provoked the Iranian defense posture and, in typing ZUGZWANG fashion, Iran played its hand by attack Al Udeid Base. This hugely symbolic ‘gesture’ showed that Iran was willing to escalate to regional neighbors in the event of hostilities.  Prepations to neutralize that threat were made. The Gulf neighbors were armed with air defence systems so much so that even a country like UAE is able to detect UAV’s and neutralize them.

The Israelis,  as they bombard Tehran and other Iranian cities with increasingly lethal sorties, have opened another front in Lebanon after Hezbollah had launched a salvo towards Israel. This salvo resulted in condemnation from Lebanese government and calls for the militant group to disarm.

Amidst this litany of realities, Iranian allies, Russia and China are conspicuously not coming to the defense of an ally evidently under siege. Whilst Russia is evidently being tied down in Ukraine, the Chinese silence is concerning.  China got 80% of its oil from Iran at discounted rates. They got 50% of their oil from Maduro-led Venezuela but watched as he was kidnapped to face charges of narcoterrorism in America. The Russians gave ally Assad an apartment in Moscow. They did stand by his side in an effort to protect naval interests at Latakia but later on abandoned using force to defend him during the ongoing war on Ukraine.  The Russians received Shaheed Drones from Iran but their S-400 missile batteries are conspicuously absent in Iran

PROGNOSIS FROM THE TWO WARS

1. The US will most likely achieve the above objectives. Political pressure in Washington will likely not succeed in forcing Trump to stop midway and leave Israel to go it alone.

2. Israel is dedicated at achieving regime change. The strategic calculus of the Jewish State got nothing to do with the stability of Iran post the Ayatollahs

3. The Iranian theocracy is under siege. Isolated, abandoned by allies, leadership dead and facing possible insurgency from Kurdish forces, the writting seem to be on the wall. Time will tell

4. Russia and China must play a more prominent global role if ever challenging hegemonic behaviour of the west is to be considered.  At present,  it seems as if they are in the habit of abandoning allies at the most pivotal moment

Conclusively, the attacks by Iran of regional neighbors is a shocking military blunder of epic proportions that will be studied the way we study the decision by Hitler to launch Operation Barbarossa or decision to ignore General Paulus’ plea for tactical retreat during the Battle of Stalingrad