Connect with us



Brian Kazungu




Military Interventions Are Failing To Counter Extremist Insurgency

Sapien Sapien



Military interventions have manifestly failed, time and time again, to be effective as regards counter insurgency. These interventions are adopted under the guise of some multilateral arrangements or with the disguised blessing or direct of the UNSC.

For context purposes, let’s start the discussion with the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia, held under the blessings of an entire UNSC resolutions, Res 2472 that authorized AU member states to use military force to intervene and counter the Al Shebaab insurgency in 2007.

This military centric approach was to last, ostensibly for six months but has been renewed time and time again whilst the level of violence in Somalia and troop contributing countries has only but increased.

The recent Global Terrorism Index (2020) shows that Somalia is beset by instances of terrorism whilst numerous forays by Al Shebaab into Kenya (Westgate Shopping Mall and Garisa University Asymmetric terror attacks) proves that retributive violent incursions into troop contributing countries is a menace that can be seen to be a direct by-product of military centric approaches to regional crisis.

The events in the Niger Delta where France, probably per the doctrine of R2P has been militarily entangled highlights that this one size fits all approach to COIN is not effective as it is parroted to be

The Comminique released by SADC in Botswana also sought to address issues of troop contribution to Mozambique.

Therein lies the challenge. The triumvirate trio of Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola, under the auspices of regional integration and national sovereignty intervened, militarily, in the DRC (Operation Sovereign Legitimacy) in 1998.

The intervention was directly responsible for the collapse of the Zimbabwean economy (Black Friday Market Crash), descent into anarchy and chaos of the hybrid post-colonial state, escalation of violence in the Great Lakes region and a rise in fragile states within the greater equator zone.

The proliferated increase in arms of war resulted in the emergence of warlord (e.g. Bosco Ndagana, Wamba dia Wamba) and subsequent assassination of LD Kabila.

The SADC led intervention did not manage to bring peace and stability into the war ravaged country yet 18 years after Zimbabwe pulled out of the Congo at the behest of SADC, the country is part of an agenda and international conspiracy to intervene again. No lessons learnt.

Any involvement of foreign troops in a COIN initiative is guaranteed to be a cataclysmic failure. The rapture and related chaos to follow gives traction to this analogy.

Hyper nationalism is clear. People generally despise foreign military presence.

The Sunni Insurgency of 2003-2013 in Iraq gave us good lessons. Despite being told and made to believe that foreign troops under the guise of the Bush Doctrine are going to be seeking to restore democracy which was alleged to have been masterbated upon by Saddam Hussein, the people of Iraq said no to foreign occupation, rose up, took up arms and the resultant anarchy led to the emergency of Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, founder of modern day IS.

The by-product of military intervention is clear:

  1. More gangs
  2. More anarchy
  3. Less stability
  4. More chaos
  5. More deaths
  6. Regional escalation

I will not even mention Libya and that NATO led intervention.

For context, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado is clearly LOCALIZED with the direct risk of escalating into a Boko Haram kind of scenario once foreign troops are involved.

Definitely Mozambique needs help but that help must be in the form of capacity building and enhancement programs aimed at ensuring that the country has got institutions and systems capable of muting in the bud the escalating violence.

There are many ways of engaging in COIN. Clearly, there is a need to mix COIN approaches by the Mozambicans themselves, the thrust being to put more emphasis on civilian centric approaches and gelling it with law enforcement thrust.

Cost of cooperation must be made high meaning that decapitation measures of attrition ought to be successfully implemented whilst respecting human rights. This has been done before.

We saw this in Sri Lanka. The 26 year old Tamil Insurgency wad muted by a home grown COIN thrust as directed by the Rajakpaksa Model.

No foreign troops were involved. The death of Prabakaran signaled the end of the insurgency. This is what SADC ought to appreciate.

Reprisal attacks in many of these porous bordered SADC states will make economies collapse. Imagine the negative ramifications say to tourism of one tourist resort center is attacked.

A more pragmatic way of doing it outside of the usage of guns and tanks is the institutional/law enforcement thrust

Definitely, the SADC Communique represents a dedicated belief in the efficacy of multilateralism to resolve domestic challenges but that again, has got its limits.

To understand these limits and thence predict prognosis, the Asymmetric Warfare Equation shall be used:-

The asymmetric warfare equation is thus

AW=Asymmetric Threat (AT) + Asymmetric Operations (AO) + Cultural Asymmetry (CA) + Asymmetric Cost (AC)



Are there any asymmetric operations currently underway in Moz? Yes!

  1. Diplomacy (EU etc.)
  2. Military (Wagner Group, Dyke et al)
  3. Economic sabotage (e.g. takeover of Mocimba de Pria port)

The last two aspects of the equation paint a gory picture as to cost of intervention.

Definitely, IPB (intelligence preparation of battlefield) already is making it clear that military centric COIN even per countries with strong defense budgets, shall be extreme.

Use Afghanistan and Boko Haram for there is definite similarities. As regards that, Zimbabwe does not have capacity, e.g. it needed SA engineers to help us rehabilitate broken infrastructure brought about by the asymmetric event, Idai.

What are the cultural issues per cultural asymmetry in the restive region of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique?

  1. Values (Islamic)
  2. Norms
  3. Rules
  4. Target population (demographics and structural issues indicate sympathy to the insurgency cause)


Is there an asymmetric threat in Mozambique? Yes

What form/kind?

  1. Terrorism
  2. Insurgency
  3. Information warfare
  4. Disruptive threats (Idai)
  5. Unknown threats e.g. Climate Change induced

We are alien to Islamic values. It will quickly escalate into a religious conflict. Check Armenia vs Azerbaijan and related alliances that are emerging.

What are the likely costs to be incurred by any intervention (AC)

  1. Cost of action (Indonesian incursion into East Timor costed an equivalent of 50% of its GDP. Forced to quit. Same as the Rhodesians and also operation sovereign legitimacy by Zim in DRC)
  2. Cost of defense

Prognosis of intervention:


Our border with Mozambique (+/-1000) is too long and porous for guerilla warfare to be defeated.

Our capacity ravaged due to sanctions and amplified vices such as corruption. Per doctrine we are ok but anything post that dololo (nothing).

Continue Reading


Foreign Nationals Welcome to Join South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC)

Brian Kazungu



Johannesburg Regional Secretary for the African National Congress (ANC), Mr Dada Morero said that people from other countries are free to join ANC and participate in meetings, programmes and various campaigns of the party.

Mr Morero was responding to news on the issues of membership eligibility and fairness on discipline in the ANC in relation to foreign nationals who may choose to be members of the party.

“Foreign nationals may participate, however, they will not be eligible to vote in meetings but may participate in programmes, meetings and campaigns.” he said.

Asked on the capacity upon which they may participate in all these ANC activities, Mr Morero said that they can do so as volunteers since actual membership of the African National Congress is strictly for South Africans who possess a valid South African I.D and are eighteen years of age and above.

On the issue of discipline, he said that his party treats people with fairness in accordance with the constitution.

“All members are treated in accordance with the constitution. No one just gets expelled on the basis that they are not South African born.” He added. in its quest to help people scattered across the African continent with the right information for decision making, is working on stories centred on civic, corporate and political literacy especially in line with business and political participation in African countries.

Continue Reading


Who Is Who and What Is What In The Brighton Chifamba, City of Joburg, Setheo and City Power Case?

Brian Kazungu



The ongoing case between City of Johannesburg, an entity which raised concerns of corruption on the Eldorado Substation Project through former Joburg Mayor, Mr Mashaba and Brighton Chifamba who was engaged to Setheo Engineering, has caused confusion as to who is who and the related interests thereof in the case.

For almost three years, the case has been in the courts with fresh charges emerging while other charges get dropped along the way and this has caused confusion in the corporate world as to who really represents the affairs of company in the courts and in its executive dealings with stakeholders.

The Eldorado Park Substation project whose cancellation was at the instigation of Mr Mashaba is being challenged in the courts by Setheo engineering which is claiming damages.

Interestingly, Brighton Chifamba, a non-executive member of the engineering firm has been the longest serving casualty in the debacle thus raising concerns and questions as to on what capacity is he qualified to be dragged for a long time in the streets of corporate justice.

Other questions that have been raised are on the proper legal route that the former mayor should have taken in addressing the alleged maleficence in City Power, a separate corporate legal entity that was under his mayor-ship and yet with its own duly appointed executives.

When the case started in 2017, the project was cancelled and two City Power project coordinators were suspended and arrested together with the directors of the engineering company on allegations of fraud, only to have the charges dropped later on.

However, Chifamba, whose position has been shrouded in mystery of whether he was a foreman or Project Manager is still at the centre of the case in which, now, it’s his immigration status that has taken much of the attention as compared to the charges of corruption, fraud and theft that has been levelled against him.

Chifamba’s wife even raised concerns on why various media houses said “Chifamba and his company” in their reporting as if her husband owned the company thus raising eyebrows on whether this was deliberate or mere oversight.

When contacted through a follow up call on the various questions that have been emailed to her on the matter, the NPA Spokesperson Mrs Phindi Mjonondwane said “I saw your email, I am still waiting for a CCU to respond and check if my draft response is correct because what you are asking is evidential material and the matter is subjudicae, so they are just checking my response and if I am in order, we will be able to respond as soon as possible”.

The questions that were raised included a search of clarity on whether the case against Chifamba was still the same as the one in which the allegations against City Power project coordinators and Setheo directors were cleared of as well as the capacity upon which he was being incarcerated.

In its covering of legal, corporate and leadership related articles with past and current real life case studies for the benefit of its readers especially those pursuing entrepreneurship, this publication also further sought clarity on who was the complainant in the in the arrest of Chifamba.

Further follow-ups through an email on the same case has not been answered yet.

Continue Reading


Copyright © 2020 iniAfrica. an African narrative about ‘The Africa I want‘